Below is a grant history of utility patents from the first patent in 1791 shortly after the ratification of the U.S. constitution. This chart provides a fascinating visualization of the acceleration in patent issuance since the inception of the numbering system in 1836. It's evident that the growth in the number of patents granted has been exponential, particularly in the last few decades, marked by significant milestones such as the issuance of the 5,000,000th patent in 1991 and the 10,000,000th in 2018. This rapid increase reflects both the expansion of technological innovation and the broadening of sectors engaging in patenting activities.
Looking to the future, the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in patent analysis is poised to further influence this trend. AI technologies can streamline the patent examination process, enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of patent grant procedures. Furthermore, by automating the detection and invalidation of non-novel or overly broad patents post-issuance, AI could lead to a higher caliber of surviving patents that are truly innovative and valuable, aligning with the U.S. Constitution's intent to "promote the progress of ...useful arts." This could mean that although the number of granted and active patents may stabilize or even decrease due to stricter scrutiny, the value and impact of each granted patent could increase significantly. As a result, entities holding strong, AI-vetted patents could enjoy substantial rewards, reinforcing the incentive for meaningful innovations.